1. Quick facts

Bill Gray’s Project Pluto solution, based on data available July 17, gives 06:34:32.9 UTC, probably ± a few seconds. He expects the solution to improve as new observations arrive close to impact. The formal model can be much tighter than that, but solar-radiation pressure on a tumbling rocket stage introduces real uncertainty.

2. Where to look from Halifax

Face east-southeast. At about 3:34 a.m. ADT, the Moon should be roughly 45° above the horizon and at an azimuth of about 116° true. In practical terms: start at due east (90°), turn about 26° toward the south, then look about halfway from the horizon to the zenith.

3. Where on the Moon to watch

The predicted impact point is at 19.455° N, 93.594° W, close to Einstein Crater. In the north-up reference image used in the observing paper, the marked impact point is right against the upper-left limb of the lunar disk — approximately the 10 o’clock position. This is the easiest visual description to use when comparing your frame with Figure 1 in the paper.

4. Canon R8 + RF 100–400 mm: recommended plan

Starting setup

How large is the Moon in your R8 frame?

The R8’s 6000-pixel-wide full-frame sensor at 400 mm should render the Moon at roughly 580–600 pixels across. A useful approximate sampling is around 3 arcseconds per pixel, equivalent to roughly 5–6 km per pixel at lunar distance.

That is not telescope-class lunar detail, but it is surprisingly relevant to the new ejecta modelling: one model predicts a main ejecta curtain around 15–20 km high and a narrow central spike potentially reaching 75–100 km. In an idealized geometric sense those scales correspond to about 3–4 pixels and 13–18 pixels respectively in your 400 mm R8 image. Visibility will be limited by brightness, seeing, focus, atmospheric blur and plume morphology — not merely pixel count.

Stills versus video: choose your objective

R8-specific preparation

1. Use a fast, freshly formatted SD card and test the actual RAW Burst duration/write delay beforehand.
2. Enable RAW Burst mode and test Pre-shooting at least once before impact night.
3. Synchronize the camera clock as closely as practical to an NTP-synchronized phone/computer clock.
4. Turn off auto power-off or set it long enough that the camera cannot sleep during the critical window.
5. Use a fully charged battery; keep a spare warm and ready.
6. Frame the entire Moon with extra black sky beyond the impact limb. Do not crop the lunar edge tightly.
7. Take a clean series of pre-impact frames using exactly the same exposure/focus/framing as the post-impact sequence.

5. Suggested observing timeline — Halifax ADT

The observing paper explicitly recommends practice runs before the event; a rehearsal on the preceding night gives very similar lunar illumination and lets you validate focus, buffer behavior, framing and workflow.

6. Afterward: processing strategy

A subtle plume may be easier to detect computationally than visually. Preserve all RAW originals and avoid deleting “boring” frames until you have processed the sequence.

1. Convert consistently. Apply identical RAW development settings to the entire pre/post sequence.
2. Register the Moon. Align frames on stable lunar features to sub-pixel precision if possible.
3. Create a pre-impact reference. Median/average-stack several sharp pre-impact frames to reduce noise and atmospheric variations.
4. Difference-image. Subtract the registered reference from individual post-impact frames.
5. Inspect the limb separately. Look for new off-limb signal at the predicted location and track whether it changes coherently with time.
6. Reject seeing artifacts. A real plume should evolve systematically; atmospheric shimmer usually changes irregularly around the entire limb.
7. Keep timestamps. Do not strip EXIF until you have documented the original capture sequence.

If you record something plausible, the paper points observers to the Lunar Impact Flash Portal for data sharing.

7. What the science currently predicts

The plume predictions are model-dependent. The newer July 27 ejecta paper gives substantially larger plume heights than the earlier simple Project Pluto estimate, illustrating exactly why this observation is scientifically interesting: the event provides a rare test of competing impact/plume models.

8. Primary sources and useful links

1. Bill Gray / Project Pluto — Upper stage impacting the Moon on 2026 August 5 primary orbital prediction
   Continuously useful page for impact time, location, uncertainty, trajectory background and future refinements.
2. Fernando et al. — Observational planning for the 2026 August 5 Falcon 9 Upper Stage lunar impact scientific preprint
   Amateur/professional observing guidance; Figure 1 shows the predicted impact point. Also available as PDF and HTML.
3. Jo et al. — Predicted Ejecta Dynamics and Observability of the 2026 Falcon 9 Upper Stage Lunar Impact ejecta modelling
   July 27 modelling paper predicting plume structure, height and brightness evolution.
4. Timeanddate — Halifax Moonrise/Moonset, August 2026 local geometry
   Local rise/set, meridian altitude, illumination and lunar timing.
5. Canon EOS R8 manual — RAW Burst Mode camera manual
   RAW Burst and approximately half-second pre-shooting instructions.
6. Canon EOS R8 product information camera specs
   Canon source specifying approximately 30 fps RAW Burst and pre-shooting.
7. NASA — Impact Flash! citizen science project observing resource
8. Lunar Impact Flash Network / data portal data sharing
9. Project Pluto artificial-satellite ephemeris service advanced
   Includes 2025-010D / NORAD 62719 and accepts observer latitude/longitude.
10. NASA/JPL Horizons advanced ephemeris
11. CNBC/AP coverage — July 31, 2026 news
    The article that prompted this observing plan.

9. Night-of checklist